Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to BAL 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 26 for 1 yard (36-T.Lippett). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model