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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model