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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to BAL 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 25 for 10 yards (35-W.Aikens; 92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP