Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.61 EP
77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.07 EP

KICK -1.66 EP

30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model