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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model