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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(9:35) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 89-J.Cook to ARI 9 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model