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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to LA 40, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model