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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model