Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(1:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 40 for 15 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.27 EP
56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model