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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 12 for 3 yards (53-D.Bates, 54-B.Hager).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.00 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model