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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 2-D.Butler punts 27 yards to LA 10, impetus ends at LA 4, Center-82-M.Leach. 53-D.Bates to LA 10 for no gain (96-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP