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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 37 for 9 yards (36-S.Williams). PENALTY on CIN-36-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model