4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LA 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-W.Welker to LA 33 for 13 yards (19-B.Tate; 81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model