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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete deep middle to 19-W.Welker (29-L.Hall) [96-C.Dunlap].

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.18 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EP