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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 18-K.Britt.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP