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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to LA 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 16 for 6 yards (30-C.Peerman; 81-T.Kroft). PENALTY on LA-50-C.Lynch, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10. {Austin credited with 0 yard return due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP