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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-B.Tate to CIN 28 for 3 yards (46-C.Harkey).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP