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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CIN 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-46-C.Harkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model