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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 37 for 15 yards (52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model