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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model