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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model