Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 5-M.Scifres punt is BLOCKED by 52-H.Pullard, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by JAX-25-P.Thompson at LAC 14. 25-P.Thompson to LAC 14 for no gain (34-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.79 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -2.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model