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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 16-D.Robinson to LAC 20 for 9 yards (32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP