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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 30 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model