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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP