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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model