Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to JAX 31, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 40 for 9 yards. PENALTY on LAC-25-D.Stuckey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.98 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model