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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 41

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 19-B.Anger punts 27 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP