Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to LV 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-52-S.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model