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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to TEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 83-H.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model