Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LV 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 33 for 7 yards (57-J.Staples; 28-M.Huff). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model