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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to LV 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 39 for 13 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP