4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 31 yards to TEN 27, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-59-J.Condo.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP