4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(14:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to LV 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 36 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model