4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model