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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to LV 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-J.Ross. PENALTY on LV-31-N.Thorpe, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LV 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP