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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 41, and recovers at TEN 44. 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model