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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 34

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Bromley), Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model