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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 40

Washington Commanders 20 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 0, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 6 for 6 yards (20-J.Johnson). PENALTY on WAS-93-T.Murphy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.02 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP