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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 90

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to WAS 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model