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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 75

Washington Commanders 17 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 5 yards (19-R.Ross, 57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model