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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to WAS 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at WAS 19 for 2 yards (55-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model