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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. QB sneak The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model