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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 9 at the 46
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(5:50) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.47 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.46 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK
-0.97 EP
- 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 65% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
