Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 85

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 0

(7:11) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model