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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 24

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model