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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 40 for -8 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr) [55-A.Barr], recovered by ATL-73-R.Schraeder at ATL 43. Ball spotted back at ATL 40 by fourth-down fumble rule.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.10 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model