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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 22 for 3 yards (27-R.Therezie).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP