Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 87

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(7:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to 50, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.27 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model