4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 46

Chicago Bears 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP